Digitisation of the Economy

Q3 2024 Commentary

Nvidia remains the tech goliath- and moved sideways in Q3, having almost doubled in Q1 and risen another 50% in Q2. Other tech giants also showed signs of running out of steam- Microsoft fell almost 4%, Amazon 3%, Alphabet (Google) 9%, though Apple was up 10% and Meta (Facebook) 14%. So a mixed picture, but no clear steer from the USA.  

Finding clear beneficiaries of the AI revolution remains tricky, and often the AI part of the business is relatively marginal as far as revenues are concerned. For example Intelliam, which came to the market earlier this year to offer AI-powered solutions to manufacturing process issues, produced its first numbers and remains for now a consulting business. Crimson Tide, a producer of Internet of Things (IoT)- based monitoring systems for the service and retail sector, attracted bid interest in Q2 but nothing came of this and results showed that business progress is slow. Rosslyn, which has interesting procurement management software, however reported a substantial order from a major company which turned out to be Amazon- they had beaten off an internally-developed product.  

Cyanconnode, the provider of networked control of smart metered utilities, made real progress in the quarter announcing large wins in their core market of India, and a move into capturing more of the value chain of their systems. They raised money in September to support the growth but from a position of strength rather than of desperation as sometimes happens! Interestingly they have had interest from within India in taking a strategic stake in their operations there.  

Political uncertainty on government spending post the election has had an effect and consultancy TPX had to warn on revenues. The drive towards digital transformation and the need for the public sector to improve its woeful productivity record will not go away and opportunities for consultancies will remain- Dominic Cummings’ failed attempt to create an in-house management consultancy for the government may serve as a warning to the new administration.  

Cybersecurity, or as it should really be called, data security,continues to be a preoccupation for companies and for the public sector. Smaller companies offering solutions in this sector sometimes find themselves faced with credibility and credit problems facing off against the procurement departments of very large potential customers and this can be a pressure towards consolidation. At the end of the quarter Crossword Cybersecurity had to suspend trading in its shares after running into accounting problems: they had admitted prior to that that their limited scale was stopping them winning business despite the quality of their products. There are some winners in the sector – Corero, which had a new management team that brought a sharper commercial focus in 2023 has been a success, albeit it is not a company we have followed closely, but the likelihood must be that this is not an area for niche players.  

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