Decarbonisation

Q3 2024 Commentary

We have decided to split this group between the companies involved directly in the energy transition, and those working on carbon and other pollutant reduction in food and other consumer products. 

Energy Transformation

There is no widely used benchmark for this group: the S&P Kensho Hydrogen Economy Index (over 88% weighting to US companies, ticker KHEUP) fell 14.5% in the year to end September, almost all of which was in Q2- in Q3 it dropped about 1%. 

However overall sentiment was poor. Chinese domination of lithium battery and solar panel production has created problems for major companies in the sector which inevitably damage sentiment- even though logically lower prices should improve use cases. The major energy companies seem to be rowing back on commitments to new energy. On the other handgovernments continue to increase support but this is a slow burn and the messages are mixed by actions such as US and EU tariffs on EVs.  

We continue to follow the AIM listed investment company HydrogenOne (HGEN) which invests in a range of hydrogen technologies. The company had a poor quarter- not as far as its portfolio was concerned, but in the market- it had reached a 60% discount to NAV in March, was trading at under a 50% discount in the middle of the year and ended the third quarter at about a 70% discount. Hydrogen projects have been slow to move, and the auto industry seems to be firmly now focussed on electric vehicle technology, whereas hydrogen power (whether via ammonia or through electrolysers generating electricity) seems to be increasingly being developed for heavy power use-cases (marine engines, mining, construction site generators)- the fuel cell company AFC which has some interesting ammonia cracking technology moved towards a potential spin-off of this part of its business. 

We still have to see how the new UK administration’s commitment to green growth and the establishment of Great British Energy will play out: whether it will be purely an infrastructure and generation enabler and sponsor or whether it will have an impact further down the value chain remains unclear. Certainly, without either government sponsorship or large company partnerships, it will be hard for small tech companies to get to market. Large OEMs tend to want to run prolonged trials to ensure that new technologies continue to work over time, and not just “out of the box”, and large buyers will continue to play safe.   

We shall be writing shortly on some other opportunities in the energy sector.  

Sustainable Agriculture & Consumer Products

This group includes companies looking to improve the carbon footprint of the agricultural and food production industries through efficiencies and new technologies. There are a mix of issues facing companies here, from regulatory delays (e.g new crop protection treatments), to financial matters facing potential customers. Persuading customers to change the components they use in order to improve energy efficiency is often desirable but not necessarily affordable. Nonetheless in all cases the route to market is clear. Regulation has continued to tighten- for example last year the EU barred any further derogations on the use of neo-nicotinoids to protect beet, due to the effect on bees, and it seems likely that the UK will follow. 

The investment company Agronomics, which has a portfolio of early stage cell-cultured food production companies, is trading on a c. 70% discount to NAV: we have recently seen its founder increase his stake. In the quarter it had reported uplifts in one of its company and non-dilutive external funding for another.  

Biome was forced to make a dilutive equity issue after business from one of its US customers dried up due to problems at the customer, a warning against business concentration.  

Eden, which is benefitting from the drive towards cutting microplastics and towards greener pesticides and fungicides continued to garner new regulatory permissions, including in Spain and Germany, and at the latest results the company suggested it had sufficient cash to reach breakeven.  

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